June 29, 2026, (Inside AI) — Asian markets swung unevenly on Monday as investors balanced artificial intelligence growth stories against mounting cost concerns, while a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire kept oil prices high and the dollar near a one-year peak.
The MSCI EM Asia gauge held flat near two-week lows, while an ASEAN stock tracker rose 0.4% after hitting similar lows last session. Choppy trade reflected deep caution over stretched AI-driven rallies, especially in South Korea and Taiwan, and uncertainty over how rising input costs might ripple through supply chains.
South Korea's KOSPI, which tumbled 7% last week, slid as much as 3.4% before paring losses to around 2%. Taiwan's benchmark gained up to 2.1%, extending its 56% year-to-date surge, second only to the KOSPI's 97% rally.
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at capital.com, said the market narrative now hinges on AI return on investment and whether cost pressures are cascading down the supply chain.
"Last week's announcement by Apple ... shows that the cost pressures caused by the demand for raw materials for the AI build-out are about to hit consumers directly."
Thailand's SET index rose over 1%, led by Delta Electronics Thailand, which jumped around 5% and is up 84% this year. Malaysian equities shed 0.5%, while Jakarta's index slid 0.4%, on track for its worst June since 2015 and a sixth straight monthly decline.
Geopolitics added to the unease. The U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh strikes over the weekend before agreeing to a ceasefire and talks in Qatar on Tuesday. The dollar index held steady near 101.4, supported by lingering uncertainty and rising Fed rate hike expectations.
Lukman Leong, an analyst at Doo Financial Futures, noted that regional currencies remained broadly stable as oil prices avoided a sustained spike, easing pressure on net energy importers like India, Thailand, and the Philippines.
"The relatively muted market reaction also reflects expectations that any Middle East conflict will remain contained, allowing investors to refocus on domestic fundamentals."
The Malaysian ringgit led gains, rising over 0.6% to 4.063 per dollar, a near two-week high. The Indonesian rupiah advanced to 17,860 per dollar. The Philippine peso and Thai baht were largely flat, while the South Korean won fell 0.6% and the Taiwanese dollar slipped 0.2%.
In other developments, South Korea's president is set to unveil a massive AI and chip investment drive, Japan targets more than doubling real growth to over 1% in a new economic blueprint, and China's central bank offered 300 billion yuan in new overnight reverse repos. Venezuela's earthquake death toll neared 1,500, and Bolivia announced a flexible exchange-rate system, ending a 15-year dollar peg.
