July 6, 2026, (Inside AI) — Samsung Electronics is expected to report an 18-fold surge in second-quarter operating profit to a record 86 trillion won ($56.35 billion), fueled by an unrelenting AI-driven memory boom that has pushed chip prices to unprecedented levels.
The world's largest memory chipmaker by sales will likely confirm on Tuesday that the April to June period marked its third consecutive quarter of record profit, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate from 30 analysts. The figure compares with 4.7 trillion won a year earlier.
The staggering growth reflects a prolonged shortage of memory chips as demand for AI inference infrastructure far outstrips supply. Analysts now expect the memory market to remain undersupplied at least through next year.
The boom extends beyond high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to conventional DRAM and NAND products. The shift is driven by agentic AI systems that perform complex, multi-step tasks, requiring more memory for server processors and greater storage for data retrieval during inference.
Samsung supplies chips to Nvidia, Google, and Apple, placing it at the heart of the AI ecosystem. Citi Research said average selling prices for DRAM and NAND rose 44% and 53% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, in the second quarter.
The Bonus Wildcard That Could Skew Earnings
Despite the rosy outlook, second-quarter earnings could miss consensus if Samsung books a large provision for employee bonuses. In late May, Samsung averted a strike by agreeing to allocate 10.5% of its semiconductor division's operating profit to special bonuses for chip workers.
Some analysts estimate cumulative bonus provisions could exceed 40 trillion won, making the timing of recognition a key variable. Samsung will release detailed earnings later this month.
The memory shortage has ignited a massive rally in chip stocks. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have soared 158%, 273%, and 242% this year, pushing their market valuations above $1 trillion.
When the AI Spending Spigot Might Run Dry
Looking ahead, the biggest risk to the memory boom is a potential pullback in AI infrastructure investment. JPMorgan noted that while supply-demand fundamentals remain tight, many investors question whether AI memory's share of cloud capital expenditure—estimated at 52% this year and expected to exceed 70% next year—is sustainable.
Any drop in AI spending could hurt Samsung and SK Hynix, which last week pledged 3,200 trillion won ($2.07 trillion) to expand chip capacity in South Korea. Samsung plans its investment between 2026 and 2040, while SK Hynix gave no timeline.
JPMorgan said investors need clearer evidence that AI breakthroughs will translate into faster cloud revenue growth to justify memory's expanding share of AI infrastructure spending.
In April, Samsung said it signed multi-year binding contracts with customers to lock in supplies, without disclosing identities or terms. Nomura expects commodity DRAM prices to rise 24% and NAND prices to increase 25% in the July-September quarter, supported by demand for consumer products and data center chips.
Meanwhile, Samsung's mobile business faces mounting cost pressures as rising memory prices squeeze margins. Despite recent handset price increases, analysts say further hikes may be needed. Rival Apple raised prices of iPads and MacBooks last month.
