August 25, 2026, (Inside AI) — Nvidia reports quarterly results Wednesday, and the stakes go far beyond a single earnings beat. The company must prove its new Rubin chips can sustain explosive growth while investors question whether its deep financing deals are inflating demand.
The chipmaker has been the biggest winner of the AI infrastructure race. Yet its stock has lagged rivals this year, rising just 11.8% and briefly losing the title of world's most valuable company to Apple last month. Analysts expect second-quarter revenue to nearly double to $92.18 billion, the fastest growth in seven quarters, driven by a more than twofold jump in data center sales.
But the real test is the transition from Blackwell to Vera Rubin processors, with shipments starting this autumn. A successful ramp is critical as Nvidia faces rising competition from custom chips at Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, plus central processors from Intel and AMD in inference workloads.
Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Rubin could contribute nearly $9 billion in sales in the third quarter ending October. They wrote that Rubin could unlock a large improvement in AI factory economics over Blackwell, but cautioned it would take time to judge whether Nvidia can win share from AMD and custom AI chips.
Financing Deals Blur the Line Between Vendor and Bank
Scrutiny intensified this month after Nvidia helped arrange $500 billion in financing from six major U.S. financial institutions for customers building AI infrastructure. Last week, Nvidia agreed to guarantee up to $105 billion to help OpenAI lease a massive data center in Ohio for 20 years.
Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management, which holds Nvidia shares, said the company is becoming a central banking figure in AI. "This makes them a kind of central banking figure in the AI space. The real risk is total AI exposure with no diversification; the key for this to be successful is that adoption rates of AI tools must continue to grow."
CEO Jensen Huang rejected the circular financing label. He said the Ohio backstop is not circular because OpenAI pays for the lease. Nvidia is simply financing data centers, power supplies, and facilities that will house its chips for decades, he argued.
Big Tech's $730 Billion Bet Meets Margin Pressure
Driving Nvidia's growth is a data-center spending spree by Big Tech set to exceed $730 billion this year, plus ballooning outlays at smaller AI-focused cloud firms like CoreWeave, which Nvidia backs. Analysts expect Nvidia to forecast an 82.8% rise in third-quarter sales to $104.20 billion.
Adjusted gross margin is expected to hold around 75% for both quarters. That stability matters because financing guarantees and inventory commitments could pressure future margins if AI adoption slows.
The earnings call will likely focus on Rubin's production timeline, customer commitments, and whether Nvidia can maintain pricing power as custom silicon matures. Investors also want clarity on how Nvidia accounts for its financing guarantees and whether those deals create hidden liabilities.
Beyond the numbers, Nvidia's results will signal whether the AI infrastructure boom has more room to run or is nearing a peak. The company's ability to convert its balance sheet strength into durable market share will shape the next phase of the AI trade.
