August 12, 2026, (Inside AI) — U.S. electricity consumption is on track to shatter records in 2026 and 2027, driven by an unrelenting expansion of AI data centers and broader electrification, the Energy Information Administration warned in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday.
Power demand will climb from an all-time high of 4,195 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 4,268 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,391 billion kWh in 2027, the EIA projected. The surge cements a third consecutive year of record-breaking usage.
Data centers built for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency are the primary culprits, alongside a shift toward electric heating and transportation. Yet the agency slashed its 2027 forecast for Texas after Governor Greg Abbott announced a moratorium on new data center development on August 3.
"We expect electricity load in Texas will grow by 6% in 2027, in contrast to our forecast of 14% growth in the previous STEO,"EIA said in its latest report.
The Texas pullback highlights a growing tension between economic ambitions and grid reliability. ERCOT, the state's grid operator, has struggled to keep pace with hyperscale demand. In 2025, Texas accounted for roughly 20% of all U.S. data center power use, according to a 2025 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study. The governor's pause reflects fears of rolling blackouts similar to those during Winter Storm Uri in 2021.
Residential power sales will dip slightly to 1,514 billion kWh in 2026, just below the 2025 peak of 1,515 billion kWh. Commercial sales, however, will climb to a record 1,545 billion kWh, surpassing 2025's 1,493 billion kWh. Industrial consumption will hold at 1,064 billion kWh, matching the 2000 high.
Coal Fades While Renewables Climb
The generation mix is shifting, but not fast enough to satisfy climate goals. Coal's share will drop from 17% in 2025 to 16% in 2026 and 15% in 2027. Natural gas will remain stuck at 40% through 2027. Renewables will inch up from 24% to 27%, while nuclear holds steady at 18%.
That trajectory leaves the U.S. far short of the 80% clean electricity target by 2030 that many researchers say is needed to meet Paris Agreement pledges. The Rhodium Group noted in a 2025 report that AI-driven demand could add 200 terawatt-hours of annual load by 2030, equivalent to the entire output of California.
Natural gas sales to power generators will rise to 36.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, just shy of the 36.8 bcfd record set in 2024. Residential gas use will fall to 12.5 bcfd, commercial to 9.5 bcfd, while industrial demand edges up to 23.9 bcfd.
Data Centers Outpace Efficiency Gains
Industry observers note that efficiency improvements in AI chips have not curbed overall energy appetite. Each new generation of GPUs from Nvidia and AMD delivers more performance per watt, but the total number of deployed accelerators is exploding. A 2026 International Energy Agency report found that global data center electricity use could double by 2030 even under optimistic efficiency scenarios.
The EIA's outlook underscores a hard truth: AI's infrastructure buildout is colliding with an aging grid. The 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law allocated $65 billion for grid upgrades, but the American Society of Civil Engineers still gives U.S. energy infrastructure a C-minus grade. Transmission projects often face decade-long permitting timelines.
Some utilities are turning to on-site generation. Microsoft and Google have signed deals for small modular reactors, while Amazon is backing a $500 million fusion venture. But none of these projects will deliver power before the early 2030s.
The EIA also flagged that cryptocurrency mining, though less discussed, remains a significant load driver. After China's 2021 crackdown, the U.S. became the world's largest Bitcoin mining hub, consuming an estimated 2% of national electricity.
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Mark Porter
