September 18, 2026, (Inside AI) — London-based artificial intelligence startup Mantic has secured $25 million in seed funding, the company announced Friday. The round was led by Radical Ventures, with participation from Microsoft's venture fund M12, Thinking Machines Lab, Balderton Capital, and other investors. The valuation remains undisclosed.
The funding follows a breakthrough performance in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup, an online forecasting tournament that concluded this month. Mantic's AI assigned probabilities to political, economic, and cultural events more accurately than human competitors, marking the first time technology has dominated the competition.
Mantic specializes in fine-tuning frontier AI models from other labs to excel at forecasting. The system is tested on historical data, graded, and iteratively improved. CEO Toby Shevlane, who co-founded the company with Ben Day in 2024, said the idea emerged from his previous work as a research scientist at Google DeepMind, where he needed better predictions of global events relevant to AI.
"We're now upgrading the level at which humans can understand the future," Shevlane said in an interview.
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During the tournament, Mantic avoided herd mentality that often plagues human forecasters. In one question, humans overwhelmingly bet that Shakira's "Dai Dai" would not overtake "Waka Waka" on the Billboard Hot 100. That consensus proved wrong, but Mantic did not bet heavily on it. Early in the competition, Mantic assigned Abelardo De La Espriella about a 40% chance of winning Colombia's presidential election, compared with a roughly 30% consensus. De La Espriella ultimately won. Mantic outperformed every human contestant and all but one bot, called laertes.
Aaron Rosenberg, a partner at Radical Ventures who has joined Mantic's board, said the startup has drawn interest from companies and government agencies globally, some of which have already integrated its AI. Mantic declined to name its customers. Hedge funds and trading firms were particularly eager for Mantic's forecasts, Rosenberg noted.
"If Mantic is superhuman as it is, they can make money off of that immediately," he said.
Mantic's success highlights a growing trend of AI systems surpassing human capabilities in specialized domains. While large language models have shown prowess in text generation and problem-solving, forecasting represents a distinct challenge that requires synthesizing vast amounts of information, weighing uncertainties, and avoiding cognitive biases. The startup's approach of specializing existing models rather than building from scratch could prove more efficient and scalable.
The Metaculus Cup, a prestigious forecasting tournament, has long been a benchmark for human judgment. Mantic's victory signals a potential shift in how organizations approach strategic planning and risk assessment. Financial institutions, in particular, have much to gain from accurate predictions of market movements, political outcomes, and social trends.
However, questions remain about the generalizability of Mantic's system. The tournament covered a specific set of questions, and it is unclear how well the AI would perform on novel or rapidly evolving scenarios. Additionally, the startup faces competition from other AI forecasting initiatives, such as those from OpenAI and DeepMind, which have also explored predictive modeling.
Shevlane's background at DeepMind, a leader in AI research, lends credibility to Mantic's technical foundation. The startup's ability to attract backing from Microsoft's M12 and Thinking Machines Lab, a prominent AI research group, suggests strong confidence in its approach. Radical Ventures, known for early bets on AI companies, has a track record of identifying transformative technologies.
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As AI continues to advance, the line between human and machine intelligence blurs in areas once thought to be uniquely human. Forecasting, with its mix of data analysis and intuition, was considered a stronghold of human expertise. Mantic's achievement challenges that assumption and opens new possibilities for AI-driven decision-making.
The startup plans to use the fresh capital to expand its team, enhance its models, and explore commercial applications. While specific customers remain undisclosed, the interest from hedge funds and government agencies indicates a ready market for superior forecasting. The potential for profit is immense, as even slight improvements in prediction accuracy can translate into significant financial gains.
Mantic's journey from a research idea to a funded startup reflects the rapid pace of innovation in AI. With its superhuman forecasting capabilities, the company is poised to influence how businesses, governments, and individuals anticipate and prepare for the future.
