August 24, 2026, (Inside AI) — Asian equities traded flat on Monday as investors braced for two defining events this week: U.S. sanctions details on Iran and Nvidia’s quarterly results. The chipmaker’s Wednesday earnings report has become a referendum on the artificial intelligence boom’s durability.
Analysts expect Nvidia to report quarterly revenue near $92 billion, nearly double from a year earlier. Full-year earnings guidance is projected between $103 billion and $105 billion. Those figures reflect extraordinary demand for AI accelerators, yet they also set a bar that even Nvidia may struggle to clear.
The broader market’s anxiety extends beyond one company. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks Friday at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Traders want clarity on interest rates, but Warsh’s known reluctance to offer forward guidance may frustrate them. Markets currently price a 40% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s September 16 meeting, with a December move fully priced in.
Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan, cautioned against expecting fireworks from Warsh. “There are several reasons to expect to be underwhelmed,” Kasman said. He noted that past chairs have avoided front-running Fed decisions at the annual symposium. “Warsh will rather likely focus on aspects of his ‘regime change’ agenda,” Kasman added. “As the Fed has already been moving toward shrinking the balance sheet, and the committee gave the balance sheet some attention in the July minutes, that might be the most likely topic for him to expound upon.”
Those words carry weight for AI companies. Higher bond yields make future earnings less valuable in present terms, pressuring valuations of high-growth tech firms. The 30-year Treasury yield sits at 5.2760%, not far from a 19-year peak of 5.3371%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent‘s announcement last week of a doubling in bond buybacks has done little to tame yields.
Bessent is scheduled to hold a news conference later Monday outlining sanctions on Iran. The country has shown no sign of relinquishing control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Brent crude slipped 1.0% to $93.43 a barrel, following a 6.6% gain last week. U.S. crude eased 1.1% to $86.14.
Nvidia’s Numbers Test the AI Trade’s Staying Power
Nvidia has become the clearest proxy for AI infrastructure spending. Its data center segment, which includes H100 and Blackwell platform sales, drives most of the revenue growth. Hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to expand AI capacity, but questions about return on investment linger.
Any miss on guidance could trigger a sharp repricing across semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index remains highly correlated with Nvidia’s share price. A strong report, by contrast, could reignite enthusiasm for AI-related equities that have traded sideways in recent weeks.
Currency markets added another layer of uncertainty. The Canadian dollar dipped 0.1% to 1.3784 per U.S. dollar after Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would retaliate against U.S. tariffs. Canada plans levies on U.S. steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. The trade dispute could disrupt North American supply chains, including those for electronics components used in AI hardware.
The U.S. dollar index held at 96.832 after losing 0.8% last week. The euro traded at $1.1675, while the dollar was flat at 159.00 yen. Gold firmed 0.4% to $4,623 an ounce, up more than 14% for August. If that gain holds, it would mark the metal’s biggest monthly rise on record.
Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Could Reframe Rate Expectations
Warsh’s appearance carries unusual weight because of his “regime change” agenda. He has previously signaled interest in shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet more aggressively. The July FOMC minutes showed committee members discussing balance sheet policy, giving Warsh a natural opening to elaborate.
Core inflation data due this week could shift rate odds. Median forecasts expect core inflation to hold at 3.3% in July. A hotter reading would strengthen the case for a September hike, pressuring growth stocks. A cooler print could ease yields and offer relief to AI valuations.
For Nvidia, the macro backdrop matters as much as the earnings print. The company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio remains elevated compared to the broader market. Sustained high yields make that multiple harder to justify, even with explosive revenue growth.
Investors across Asia reflected the cautious mood. The Nikkei traded near flat after falling almost 4% last week. South Korean shares eased 0.8%, while Taiwan dipped 0.5%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.2%. European and U.S. futures were little changed.
The week’s events will test whether the AI trade can withstand tighter financial conditions and geopolitical friction. Nvidia’s results may provide the clearest answer yet.
