June 29, 2026, (Inside AI) — Chinese stocks are poised to extend their rally into the second half of 2026, driven by resilient exports, recovering producer prices, and a fading drag from high oil prices, according to midyear outlooks from domestic and global brokerages.
The CSI 300 Index has already climbed about 5 per cent in the first half, with technology companies—especially AI chipmakers and optical module producers for data centers—fueling the gains. A Shanghai exchange tech board gauge surged over 50 per cent this year.
Guosen Securities forecasts average full-year earnings growth of 10 per cent for mainland-listed firms, while Founder Securities sees 10 to 15 per cent growth, citing improving factory-gate prices. Households could channel 2 trillion yuan (US$294 billion) into equities, Guosen added.
HSBC Holdings projects the CSI 300 will end 2026 at 5,400, an 11 per cent gain from the latest close. Morgan Stanley targets the same level within 12 months and sees a 27 per cent rise in the MSCI China Index by mid-2027.
China's energy transition is a key buffer. Invesco strategist David Chao noted:
"China appears particularly well-insulated from higher oil prices due to its electrification efforts and more diverse energy mix. The country is likely to benefit from the energy transition, as evident in the ongoing strength in new-economy sectors, with export growth expected to remain robust, especially of alternative energy technology and electric vehicles, as the world seeks to build greater resilience to future energy shocks."
This insulation contrasts with economies still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, giving China a competitive edge as global energy demand evolves. The AI-driven tech rally underscores China's deepening role in critical supply chains for cutting-edge technologies.
Yet, some analysts caution that geopolitical tensions and regulatory shifts could temper the outlook. The bullish consensus hinges on sustained export momentum and stable domestic policy support for new-economy sectors.
